Crop Disease Under Climate Change

How can the research be used? Ka pēhea e whai take ai te rangahau?

• This research aims to ascertain the risk of horticultural diseases under a changing climate, nationally and regionally, and the impacts of this risk on communities, costs to growers, and future land use suitability.
• The research also aims to provide a general outlook on trends and changes, to help the New Zealand horticulture industry adjust and adapt to the changing climate. The ability to adapt will be improved if more growers and their sector bodies understand how future temperature and moisture conditions, and extreme weather events such as floods, will affect temperature-dependent infection risks, productivity, and yield. The research team aims to provide answers to specific questions, such as “How many bad fire blight days can I expect today compared to five years from now when my planting matures?”
• Exemplar diseases will be selected to represent different disease categories, driven by temperature, wetness or adverse weather events. These pathogens can cause major economic losses (globally estimated at US$220 billion/year), so understanding how the main disease categories are predicted to respond to climate change will prepare the horticulture industry for potential changes in disease risk.
• Adaptation strategies will be developed to manage increased disease threats, that are scientifically based and feasible to implement.
• The research will give the horticulture industry, regional authorities, government bodies, and land stewards the information they need to take pre-emptive actions. The research will support decisions about land use and production methods, such as: prioritising production into areas more suitable geophysically, land use (to grow or not to grow), cultivar (resistance/susceptibility), crop protection (chemical/biological), inoculum management (often physical removal) as well as canopy architecture and structural (training, covered systems) decisions, to mitigate disease epidemics.
• All research findings, including models developed, will be freely available to all interested parties. Models will be hosted by HortPlus/MetWatch and integrated with their existing industry services, with no extra cost to end- The knowledge will be shared with independent rural consultancy firms and with retail-based consultants.